It is all about mental toughness, perspective and patience. .3% in a market full of indexes that are red on the year. I'll take it. I know there are bear speculators looking mighty good right now just as there are bull ones during those phases when the markets default to 'melt up' mode. But I will take my .3% as of yesterday's close, because it shows that I have done what I set out to do, which is to manage risk as needed in service to a long term theme that remains intact.
In 2010, as I watched the bottoming pattern in the gold-silver ratio (among other indicators) for months on end, I kept the NFTRH 'speculation' portfolio within a self-imposed +/- 5% trading range until I could get a read on the risk environment with either a confirmation of the bullish looking GSR pattern or a negation of same. Well, greed and waste won out in the macro as policy makers panicked into QE2, the GSR was smashed and I was compelled to immediately drop all risk management. The +/- 5% ranged then ramped to finish 2010 at +42%. Thank you Ben. By the way, has anything come in the mail yet?
2011 has been generally in a range of 0% to +10%. Despite what I still view as a profoundly bullish potential gold miner scenario in a big picture, this has been a year of ongoing management. Result? A whole lot of work for virtually no return. That's show biz ladies and gentlemen. Herds are in full flight, wise guys are out with the "I told my readers this and that" or talking in hyperbolic and dire tones about the precious metals and broad market corrections, and everything is in motion. Everything is in [E]motion too.
It is just the markets folks. It is time to tune down the noise, which does not mean do not listen to the European debt news, the US debt news, the economy news and most of all, the exponential derivatives news. Because if the wrong things happen, this mess is going to just wheeze and die. It is already wearing a death mask. These markets are for speculating and trying to out think black boxes and crack users.
Find real value outside the markets and then go forth and speculate if you wish. Things are getting interesting now. But these are just the markets, not real life. I look to an end to the risk management regime and I hope it comes before year end so I can trumpet at least a double digit percentage gain for 2011 and thank casino patrons once again for acting so predictably over intermediate periods.
In the event however, that the result is ongoing risk management then so be it. Because you do not dictate to the market. The market does not owe you anything. You are tiny and insignificant. But if you are a survivor, you will capitalize. It is as simple as that; survive for as long as needed and then...
Brain dump turned screed ends now.